A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
