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Growing concerns exist over the potential of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive discourse has ratcheted up in recent weeks.

What Did Ethiopia Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrea has sparked a heated rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in 2023 that his country's access to the sea was an vital issue, statements that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Ties between the both governments have regularly been difficult. After a long-standing struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a long sea border, formally separated from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, rendering it landlocked.

Five years later, a military clash erupted in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Latest Comments from Ethiopian Government

Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrean southern port of Assab – some 60 km from the boundary - and implied the intention to take it by force.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "error" of losing access to the sea as a due to Eritrea secession would be "rectified soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Threats

In the face of persistent challenges from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been limited to short statements on X from Information Minister the minister.

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for sea access describing it as "hazardous" and a "harmful plan" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of retaking previous domains.

Government spokespeople alerted on mid-September that moves to legitimise "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Region

There have been little evidence of major military movements in the border areas between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in the country, government media has broadcast graduation ceremonies of many recruits at various military training camps.

The director of personnel division of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an interview that the military was in a "reliable position" as "numerous of young people" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Previous Origins of the Dispute

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by colonial powers.

After World War II, it was then managed by the British military before becoming a federated part of Ethiopia.

However in 1962 the ruler ended this system and Eritrea became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A extended armed struggle followed, ending with the government's loss in 1991. Autonomy was then endorsed by the population in a referendum in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they clashed over the exact location of their mutual frontier, resulting in war in 1998.

Though this ended in a truce in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the neighbors stayed at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The two endorsed a declaration that the conflict was finished – a decision that gained Abiy the international recognition.

The neighboring states were then allies in Ethiopia's previous internal conflict in the northern region.

However relations have subsequently deteriorated again.